A short introduction

This blog concerns mostly global, economic and political issues. Feel free to comment.

Friday, November 25, 2011

European poker

European nations are gathered around a poker table, and stakes are high. Some European nations have all the money they want, to outbet their opponents. More adequately put: less debt than others. Who will flinch first? Our will they all outlast each other and the world economy as we know it?

A more human interest vantage point on the matter: Will I be able to afford a plane ticket back home from NYC with my euros? For now, most indicator still points to 'yes'. But increasingly, dials are shifting the other way: spreads are inching up, big players contingencies' plans are increasing the likelihood of mayhem, poor communication by European leaders and officials, ... . Up to now, a certain rationale behind some of the more stubborn players could not be denied. The Northern, thrifty nations are seeing some of the reforms they had wanted from the South. These 'safe havens' are also paying less interest then ever before. Federalist European apparatsjiks have found a window of opportunity to claim what the electorate has always denied them. Once again, the greedy markets are what's needed to push the envelope many would rather seal: Pandora's 'Federal Government', as the European Tea Parties may one day call it.

But attributing reason to these more deep-pocketed countries and cold-hearted institutions like the ECB is becoming increasingly harder. Up to now, they were able to operate under the guise of 'the ECB mandate', the limited reach of European treaties, market forces and they happily held the debt of the South against it. The latter rightfully so. But market forces are spinning out of control. At this rate, not even when the mighty emperors of the ECB step down from their ivory tower, will the crisis be contained. German paper itself is in doubt, because whether they like it or not, they will foot the bill, in the end. Whether they pay up sooner, later, or go down with the sinking ship. This is no longer a time for petty lines in the sand. This is a time that calls for heroes: people willing to step up and stick their necks out beyond their mandates. If proper procedure is to be followed on this one, we are going to sink. Any one that worked with his hands at some point in his life would realize that.

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